Max profit
$66.53
Probability of profit calculator
Probability of profit (POP) is the chance an options trade finishes with any profit at expiration. Pick a strategy and enter your strikes to see it, along with the breakevens, max loss and expected value.
Leave the price empty to estimate it from implied volatility. Results are per contract (100 shares), held to expiration.
Estimated credit: $66.53 per contract (from implied volatility; type your real price above)
Max loss
−$433.47
Breakevens
$91.33 / $109.67
Profit chance ?
79.8%
Expected value ?
+$34.91
Reward to risk
0.15 to 1
Get the full verdict on this trade
Free, no account. The app adds volatility skew, exit plans, position sizing and a plain-English verdict.
How probability of profit is calculated
First, find the breakevens: the stock prices where the trade goes from a loss to a profit at expiration. Then add up the probability that the stock finishes in the profitable range. This calculator models the stock's price at expiration as lognormal, as wide as implied volatility says, which is the same assumption your broker's POP figure usually makes.
For a put credit spread with one breakeven B, that's the chance the stock finishes above B: N(−[ln(B/S) + v²/2] ÷ v), where v is implied volatility × √(days ÷ 365) and N is the standard normal distribution.
Why a high POP isn't enough
Selling options far from the price raises POP, but it also shrinks the credit and leaves a large loss when the trade fails. A 90% POP trade that risks $450 to make $50 needs to win about 90% of the time just to break even. The number to compare is breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). If the expected win rate isn't above it, the trade loses on average. Read the full explanation.
Market-implied vs realized
The profit chance on this page uses implied volatility, so it reflects option prices, not a forecast. Enter the stock's realized volatility as well and the expected value uses that instead. When the two disagree, the gap tells you whether the options look cheap or expensive relative to how the stock has been moving.
Questions
Is probability of profit the same as delta?
No, but they're related. A short option's delta is a rough stand-in for its chance of finishing in the money. POP is measured at the breakeven instead, which includes the premium, so it's a bit higher for sellers.
Why does my broker show a different POP?
Brokers differ in the volatility they use (per-strike or at-the-money), whether they include interest rates, and whether POP means at expiration or at any point. Small differences are normal.
Does a 70% POP mean I'll win 7 out of 10 trades?
Only if the model's volatility is right and you hold to expiration. Real stocks have bigger surprises than the model, and taking profits early changes the win rate.
What POP should I look for?
There's no right number. A low-POP trade can be fine if the wins are large, and a high-POP trade can lose money if the losses are. Compare POP with the breakeven win rate.